By Michael Langemeier and James Mintert
Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

WEST LAFAYETTE – Farmer sentiment edged lower in December, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer falling 3 points to 136, reflecting a softer long-term outlook.

The Future Expectations Index dropped 4 points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128. Crop producers cited growing concern about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports as Brazil expands its role in global markets. The survey was conducted Dec. 1–5, 2025.

Expectations for farm financial performance changed little from November. The financial performance index rose 2 points to 94, driven by more producers expecting results similar to last year. The Farm Capital Investment Index also increased 2 points to 58, though 60% of producers still said December was a bad time to make large investments.

Views on agricultural exports were mixed. While only 5% of producers expect overall U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, sentiment was weaker for soybeans. In December, 13% of corn and soybean growers expected soybean exports to decline, up from 8% in November. Those expecting exports to increase fell from 47% to 39%. Competition from Brazil remains a key concern, with 84% of corn and soybean producers saying they were concerned or very concerned.

Optimism about farmland values remained strong. Short- and long-term farmland value expectation indices each rose 1 point from November. The short-term index increased to 117, while the long-term index reached a record high of 166.

Confidence in tariffs as a tool to strengthen the agricultural economy continued to weaken. In December, 54% of respondents said tariffs would strengthen agriculture, down from 59% in November. Uncertainty about tariffs’ long-term impact rose to 19%. Despite that, 75% of producers said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” the highest reading since the question was introduced in July.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment declined modestly in December as concerns about trade and export competition weighed on expectations. While producers remained cautiously optimistic about farm finances and farmland values, uncertainty over tariffs and rising competition from Brazil continues to temper confidence.

See the full report here.