By Michael Langemeier and James Mintert
Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

WEST LAFAYETTE – The Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose to 139 in November, up 10 points from October and marking its highest level since June.

The increase in farmer sentiment was driven primarily by a more optimistic outlook for the future. The Future Expectations Index climbed to 144 – 15 points higher than October – while the Current Conditions Index dipped slightly to 128. November’s survey was the first conducted after the late-October announcement of a U.S. – China trade pact that included commitments to boost U.S. agricultural exports. Producers responded with greater optimism about the future of U.S. agricultural trade, a shift reinforced by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November. The survey was administered Nov. 10–14.

Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-November 2025.

Farmers also expressed improved views on their own financial prospects. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 14 points to 92, with 24% of respondents expecting better financial performance this year, up from 16% in October. Higher crop prices were the main driver of this confidence – Eastern Corn Belt prices for fall delivery of corn rose 10% and soybeans 15% during the period. This crop-sector optimism outweighed a more pessimistic outlook among livestock producers affected by falling cattle prices. Despite this improved financial sentiment, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to 56. Only 16% of producers said it is a good time to make large farm investments.

Optimism about future agricultural trade strengthened notably. Since January 2019, the survey has tracked producer expectations for U.S. agricultural exports. In November, just 7% said exports will weaken over the next five years, down from 14% in October and 30% in March. Among corn producers, 47% expect soybean exports to rise over the next five years, while just 8% expect a decline. The improved trade outlook appears to have contributed strongly to the month’s overall sentiment gains.

Expectations for government support payments shifted as well. A majority of farmers still anticipate receiving a supplemental USDA support payment similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program, but confidence weakened. Only 16% said an MFP payment is “very likely,” a sharp drop from 62% in September. Still, when combining the “likely” and “very likely” responses, 76% of farmers in November expect to receive a payment, compared with 83% in September. When asked how they would use such a payment, 58% said they would “pay down debt,” up from 52% in October.

Farmland value expectations also improved. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose for the second consecutive month to 116, 3 points higher than October and 10 points above September. Long-run expectations climbed even more, with the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index reaching a record-high 165. Corn producers were also asked about expected cash rental rates for 2026. Nearly three-fourths (74%) said they expect rental rates to remain about the same as in 2025, consistent with responses from July and August. These steady expectations, combined with stronger crop prices, support continued strength in farmland values.

Indices of Current Conditions and Future Expectations, October 2015-November 2025.

Producers are considering adjustments to production practices in 2026 in light of expected tight operating margins. Among those who anticipate changes, the top adjustments are shifting to lower-cost seed traits or varieties and reducing phosphorus applications. Other considerations include reducing seeding rates and nitrogen applications. Nevertheless, 40% of farmers said they do not plan to make any production changes in 2026.

Farmers’ attitudes toward policy developments have also been an ongoing focus of recent surveys. In November, 59% of respondents said they expect U.S. tariff use to ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy, nearly identical to October’s 58% but below the 70% recorded last spring. At the same time, uncertainty about tariff policy has grown. In October and November, 16% and 17% of respondents, respectively, said they are uncertain about the long-run impact of U.S. tariff policy, roughly double the 8% who expressed uncertainty in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in November said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” compared to 72% in October.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in November, driven by a more optimistic outlook for the future as reflected in the Index of Future Expectations. Rising crop prices played a significant role in this renewed optimism, as did an improved outlook for U.S. agricultural exports following the new trade agreement with China. Producers also reported stronger views on farmland values in both the short and long term.

Most farmers continue to believe they are likely to receive supplemental income support from USDA – such as an MFP-type payment – if U.S. tariff policies negatively affect commodity prices, though confidence in the likelihood of those payments has slipped since September. A majority continue to view U.S. tariff policies as beneficial for agriculture in the long run, but uncertainty is growing.

Finally, while two-thirds of producers said “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction,” this represented a decline from October. The share of farmers who believe the country is on the “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

See the full report here.