Pressure from reduced crop, a lack of international buyers and emerging competition from Brazil is straining U.S. soybean growers. Photo from Braden Egli, Unsplash.

News Release

BRAZIL — Brazilian farmers are ramping up soybean production as China shifts away from American suppliers amid renewed trade tensions.

China imported no soybeans from the U.S. in September, the beginning of harvest season, for the first time since 2018, according to Chinese customs data. Brazilian exports to China reached 77 million metric tons between January and August, accounting for most of Brazil’s harvest. U.S. shipments over the same period totaled 17 million metric tons.

Cargo traffic from the U.S. to Chinese ports has fallen sharply, while deliveries from Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have increased, with soybeans representing about 90% of those imports.

The American Soybean Association said China’s tariffs have driven total duties on U.S. soybeans to 34% this year, making Brazilian crops more competitive. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry now expects next year’s harvest to rise by about 3.6%, to nearly 178 million metric tons, though officials are reviewing those projections as Chinese demand grows. Analysts say the surge may be temporary, part of Beijing’s efforts to counter U.S. tariffs. Still, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has strengthened ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping and encouraged agricultural exports.

While Brazilian farmers seize the moment, U.S. producers face lower prices and search for new markets. Some American growers are pivoting to countries such as South Korea and the Philippines or investing in domestic uses like biodiesel.