U.S. consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest since August 2021. Write-in responses included reasons like consumer prices and tariffs. Photo by The Conference Board.

News Release

WASHINGTON — For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was Wednesday, Feb. 19.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly.”

February’s fall in confidence was shared across all age groups but was deepest for consumers between 35 and 55 years old. The decline was also broad-based among income groups, with the only exceptions among households earning less than $15,000 a year and between $100,000–125,000.

Guichard added: “Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs.

“References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics. There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019.”

Consumers’ views of their family’s current and future financial situation were less positive, retreating from the series highs reached in January. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months increased to a nine-month high, though these measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index.

Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved slightly in February:

• 19.6% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 18.5% in January.
• 15.7% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 15.2%.

Consumers’ views of the labor market were less positive in February:

• 33.4% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 33.9% in January.
• 16.3% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 14.5%.