SOUTH BEND — Notre Dame’s coronavirus outbreak was a “superspreader” according to a new study in the “Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering” journal. The study looked at fall outbreaks at 30 universities across the country.

Are college campuses coronavirus superspreaders? That’s the question this study attempts to answer. The study’s bottom line: they can be.

“This idea of the lag relationship between campus outbreak and community outbreak—that is strong, compelling evidence,” said Professor Edwin Michael.

University of South Florida Epidemiology professor Edwin Michael — who taught at Notre Dame for nine years — says the study establishes strong circumstantial evidence. He points to the peak of Notre Dame’s outbreak in August preceding the peak in St. Joseph County.

But Michael is unwilling to say the circumstantial evidence proves Notre Dame’s outbreak caused an outbreak in St. Joe County.

Tolly Taylor: “Why don’t we know if it’s causal?”

Edwin Michael: “Because there’s no contact tracing. So you can’t say it’s causal.”

The study concludes at one point Notre Dame had the biggest single outbreak of any of the 30 universities examined. At another point, the study concludes, “the initial outbreak at the University of Notre Dame had superspreading-like effects on its home county.”

But Michael pushes back, saying because there wasn’t contact tracing between university students and the community, you can’t be certain the August outbreak was a superspreader event.

“They just assume students are mixing with the wider community and therefore the transmission’s occurring,” said Michael.

St. Joseph County Deputy Health Officer Dr. Mark Fox advises Notre Dame on coronavirus mitigation strategies. University leaders asked him to look at Notre Dame’s impact during the August outbreak. He found a 38% increase in St. Joe County after Notre Dame students started classes August 10. But he says the study’s data doesn’t add up.

“I’m not able to replicate what they reported,” said Dr. Fox.

Notre Dame Vice President Paul Browne added in a statement, “Dr. Fox said that if Note Dame was a superspreader, he would have expected to see a decline in the county after students left for their extended winter break. Instead, there was an increase.”

And Fox says even with that 38% increase, the county quickly recovered.

“In less than a month, the county recovered to its pre-Notre Dame baseline, if you will,” said Dr. Fox.

But Michael says the situation in the county right now is much worse than it was in August.

“The coming wave is much bigger than what occurred in the summer.”

Michael says had Notre Dame been prepared with extensive surveillance testing before Sept. 20, it could have made a significant difference in flattening the outbreak.

“Had that been in place for the launch of the fall semester, that’s the do-over that I wish that we had,” said Dr. Fox.

For the spring semester, Dr. Fox says he hasn’t established any official threshold for recommending the switch to online learning. And improved surveillance testing on campus has him hoping… he won’t have to.

“Ballpark, it’s probably 50% higher than what it was in the fall semester, maybe even a little bit more than that.”

Browne confirmed this, writing, “About 14,000 tests will be administered weekly at Notre Dame.”

This would mean Notre Dame will be able to test the entire student body every week, averaging 2,000 tests per day. The single-day record in the fall was 1,326.

“That is the kind of robust testing you need,” said Michael.

But he says you need more than just surveillance testing to prevent outbreaks — you also need excellent contact tracing and enough quarantine space for several thousand students.9

“And is it worth it? I mean, if you’re going to have 14%, or 15% of students who need to be isolated, from 12,000—that’s a big number.”

Michael is referencing the 14.5% of Notre Dame students who tested positive for coronavirus in the fall. That’s roughly 1,600 students.

Dr. Fox calls that number “worse than anyone would’ve hoped,” and Michael says he’s worried it could be similar or higher this spring, because you have the new strain that’s 50% more infectious, a slow vaccine rollout and higher county infection rates.

You can read the study yourself below: