The weather in Kosciusko has been blustery and cold since yesterday evening. As traditional with Indiana weather, temperatures have dipped and risen throughout the month. Tomorrow however, will yield the season’s first potential snowfall in the area. As snowfall predictions begin to roll in for Friday, experts are beginning to project the season’s outlook as well.

The Data

Though not necessarily a “rare event,” November temperatures reached up to 70 degrees this year. The National Weather Service noted it has examined data from prior winters from 1950 forward to search for any trends in the following winter months of December, January and February.

“We also looked at these conditions during moderate and strong El Nino events to see what happened. Unfortunately the sample size for El Nino winters is very small and no statistical significance can be associated with any of these numbers,” noted NWS.

Though the data is by no means an indicator of future results, historically winters in the Fort Wayne area that followed a November with a 70-degree day averaged a 26.9 degree temperature, a -0.5 degree departure from normal winter temperatures. The coldest winter documented following a 70 degree day had an average temperature of 17.7 degrees with the warmest winter averaging 34 degrees.

Precipitation also deviated slightly from the norm. The average winter precipitation is set at 6.92 inches, 0.15 inches less than normal. The wettest winter on record had 10.66 inches of rainfall with the driest having 4.14 inches.

With all winters examinations though, comes the real question — how much snow? The average winter snowfall historically had 24.6 inches of snow after experiencing a 70 degree November day. This is a -1.7 departure departure from normal. The snowiest winter on record had a total of 61.1 inches, with the least snowy winter having 7.9 inches.

Upcoming Winter Weather Outlook

Those hoping for a snowy season of skiing and sledding may be disappointed. The NWS notes the northern section of the U.S. is expected to experience drier conditions than normally seen during the winter months. Northern Indiana up to into Michigan is expected to experience 40 percent less precipitation than the normal average, with southern Indiana seeing 33 percent less. The further south you travel the wetter conditions are expected to be throughout the winter months. This is reportedly caused by a strong El Nino season experienced this year.

Temperatures are also expected to be above average across much of the west and northern half of the contiguous U.S. According to the NWS, northern Indiana will experience 40 percent higher temperatures than usually seen during the winter months.