Snowfalls Recapped, Summer Forecast Looks Uneventful
During a “normal” winter, Kosciusko County usually sees between 40 and 45 inches of total snowfall. This winter, however, said National Weather Service Meteorologist Nick Greenawalt, has been above normal in at least a few areas.
The first measurable snowfall of the season — identified as the snow season — fell on Nov. 11, 2013, and measured .8 inches. Since the last snow event, which happened just last Tuesday night and ended on Wednesday, Kosciusko County has received a total of 89.1 inches. “That’s an incredible amount,” said Greenawalt.
Snowfall totals for the NWS office near North Webster from Nov. 11, 2013, through today are as follows:
November 2013 – 3.2 inches
December 2013 – 13.2 inches
January 2014 – 37.9 inches
February 2014 – 22.5 inches
March 2014 (to date) – 12.3 inches
Total: 89.1 inches
While areas of the county did see some varying snowfall totals, Greenawalt said those amounts are not as well measured. Cooperative weather observers, or volunteer observers, are asked to measure snowfall totals one time per day and report their findings to the NWS. Totals are recorded every 6 hours at the NWS offices.
Also, while data from volunteer observers has not always been consistently kept, Greenawalt noted with what has been recorded from the winter of 1946-47 through today, this winter is historic for Warsaw. “There’s a handful of years with missing data, but in general this is one of the snowiest winters we’ve seen around here,” he explained. “The previous was in 2007-08 with 56.3 inches. This year saw 68.3.”
To define a “normal winter” for Kosciusko County, Greenawalt said, “We’re in between South Bend and Fort Wayne. We see a little more lake influence here locally, but Fort Wayne is usually a good comparison to us. Normal for snowfall season in Fort Wayne is 33.5 inches for the entire season. South Bend is 66.6 inches for the same time frame. Our normal is between 40 and 45 inches. We’re at about double that.”
Despite the volume of snowfall, not one snow event has been classified as a blizzard. According to Greenawalt, the NWS identifies a blizzard as an event with sustained or gusting winds of 35 mph or greater and visibility of one quarter mile or less that continues for at least a 3-hour period. “We’ve had near blizzard conditions in a lot of events, but none classified as an actual blizzard,” he said. “Blizzard conditions can happen without it even snowing. We call that a ground blizzard.”
Still, he noted this has been one of the most harsh winters as far as cold and snow is measured. “We don’t keep wind averages or normal conditions, but there has been a lot more strong low pressure systems than normal, so generally it’s been a lot windier and colder.”
While Greenawalt added that at least over the next week we should be looking at temperatures at or below normal for this time of year, the summer forecast so far shows nothing significant either way. “Information from the Climate Prediction Center, which is an outlook for June, July and August, looks for us to have no signals to either if it will be hotter or cooler. There are equal chances for at, above or below normals,” said Greenawalt. “However, much of southern U.S. from east to west looks like it will be above normal temperatures.”
If you trust in the Farmer’s Almanac, however, then you probably believe winter is not quite over. According to “North America’s most popular reference guide and oldest continuously published periodical,” snow is predicted to continue in bursts through the end of April, including a possible Easter weekend snow storm.
Further, the Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a hotter than normal summer with lower than normal precipitations.